How Much Will DOGE Impact Loudoun’s Housing Market Spring?

Remember when Amazon's new headquarters were supposed to massively impact local housing 7 years ago? We're only 7 weeks into the new administration. It's too early to say how the Trump administration's return-to-work and "reduction in force" orders will impact the local housing market. Below are some insights from local financial experts which may be helpful if you're dipping your toes into this year's market.

_{Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2023 American Community Survey}

Last week, on March 5, I attended the annual 19th Annual Economic Summit sponsored by the Dulles Area Association of Realtors (DAAR) to listen to three housing and economics experts provide more insight into what Realtors (and our clients) may expect to see in 2025. The keynote speakers included Brandi Snowden (Director of Member and Consumer Survey Research, National Association of Realtors), Lisa Sturtevant (Chief Economist, Bright MLS), and Buddy Rizer (Executive Director, Loudoun County Economic Development), pictured below.

Throughout 2024, Bright MLS and NAR had been predicting that the 2025 housing market would see more sales than in the past two years, based on pent up demand. Nationally and locally, buyers have been complaining about a lack of inventory, high interest rates and housing price inflation. By the end of last week, as of March 9, it confirmed that the greater DC Metro is experiencing an increase in listings of 20.5% over last year, or 2,050 new listings for that week. In Loudoun County, by the end of 2024, there had been less than a one month's supply of available inventory to purchase, and the median home price had increased by 52% over the past five years, to $990,000 (for a detached single family home). In my mind, this surge of inventory seems like a good thing!

Loudoun County is paying attention to what is happening to the federal workforce and has set up the "Loudoun Resilience Initiative" as a resource to Federal Workers and Contractors who are job seekers, as a precaution. However, it seemed to me that Buddy's main message to the audience last week was one of optimism.

Loudoun's data centers have had an enormous impact on the local economy, generating over 1/3 of the County's General Fund revenues, and supplying almost 1/2 of the County's property tax revenues - which means that while the cost of housing has steadily climbed over the past decade, Loudoun's tax rate on real property has reduced $0.48 per $100 over the past 12 years.
Loudoun County is running at a budget surplus and has a lot of projects underway surrounding Metro stops, as well as a development called "Rivana" at Innovation Station, which will be a mixed-use development including 2,700 residential units, a 500-room hotel, and a performing arts venue.
Local Employment growth is up 4.3%, and the unemployment rate in Loudoun County is 2.3%, below the Commonwealth's already low unemployment rate (3%), as well as the national rate (4%).

From where I sit, it really seems too early to tell how DOGE will impact the local housing market. Regardless of the administration, inflation, rising interest rates, and lower inventory are all tough for buyers to handle. What is important for consumers who are in the market to buy or sell a property is to understand & appreciate:

Sales contracts change periodically (at least once, if not twice per year).
Bright MLS rules also change periodically, and sometimes, they don't really help the end consumer understand the full cost of a home purchase (buyer broker compensation and concessions paid by sellers to buyers at the end of a transaction are now "optional" fields for listing agents to complete once a deal is over).
The "coming soon" rule Bright MLS used to have in place used to be 21 days. Now, that rule has been removed and agents can have listings as "office exclusives" for an undefined period of time. Because these exclusives don't flow through to third party sites like Zillow, Realtor.com, and Redfin, buyers may miss out on opportunities that are NOT in Bright MLS as listing agents promote them "off MLS".
Home values vary based on location, condition, and amenities - and sellers only have so much control of how these are perceived by a new set of owners. A $1m property in Alexandria, VA, for example, will look a lot different than a $1m property in Charles County, WV, or Frederick County, MD.

If you've made it this far into my post, give me a call if you'd like to talk further about your own situation! From where I sit, as a broker, I've seen a lot of messy sales contracts roll across my desk, and I've talked to a lot of lenders and title attorneys with their own case studies of ratified contracts that didn't get to close on time (or didn't close at all). In a world where everything seems to change on a daily basis, make sure to find someone who is keeping themselves immersed in best practices and is patient enough to help you understand how to make the current environment work in your favor!