2022 was a crazy year for real estate! The final numbers are in for the year and I wanted to share some insights about Lucketts Real Estate with you by taking a look at my analysis of the 2022 numbers and comparing them to prior years. And since I live the Lucketts area, I have my own personal interest in how this area is doing! The good news is that homes for sale in the Lucketts area are still in high demand!
In the video below, I present all the details, but first a tour of one of my favorite local restaurants: Roots 657 Cafe in Lucketts. Gotta support your local businesses!
There were a total of 77 homes sold in the Lucketts area, which is a really large drop from 2021, and less than half of 2020! Of course, 2020 was a VERY unusual year, so in some ways, if we average things out over the years, it's not surprising we had less in 2022 considering we had so many in 2020. In 2023, I expect things will return closer to the average of years past.
If you have read my "Lucketts Land" community page, then you know that there are over a dozen neighborhoods in this area, but the three largest are Village Green, Selma Estates and Raspberry Falls. Pulling the numbers for each of those communities, I noted that in 2022 each neighborhood saw home values increase by as much as 20% from the prior year.
There are a lot of things happening right now in Real Estate, but the one that most people are talking about is Mortgage Rates. Certainly the rising mortgage rates in 2022 played a large factor in slowing down home sales. This rise in interest rates is Fed raising their rates in an effort to control inflation and stop the sharp rise in prices of goods to consumers. Ironically, in the real estate world, this caused a lot of buyers to think twice about whether now was the time to make a move. This, in turn, created a very low inventory situation (as shown above). This very low supply meant that demand from NEW home buyers was not being met, which meant that housing prices still continued to rise through 2022, though they do appear to have started to level off.
The good news for buyers is that mortgage rates have not only leveled off, but they're actually starting to come down! You can see it in the chart above, but one of my lenders actually just sent met a new rate sheet with Jumbo rates at only 5.25%!!!!
So, what does this all mean for 2023? First, real estate is cyclical. Each year we see low sales volume in Q1, then it picks up in Q2 and Q3, and then we saw the drop off again in Q4. It happens every year, no matter what the current economic environment. Sometimes more so, than others, but this is largely influenced by the fact that many people try to move in the summer between school years. I always encourage my sellers to get a jump on the market if possible. The earlier you can list your house, the less competition you will have. So, if you can list your home in the spring, before everybody else gets on the market, you will benefit from low inventory, which drives prices up, and closing times down. But, if you wait til mid summer, you are competing with everybody else trying to sell at the same time. So, if you are even THINKING of selling this summer, call me now. We need to get a jump on it!
As I mentioned, we've seen some big jumps in pricing in Loudoun County, though it has started to cool off. The numbers below are for all of Loudoun. In Western & Northern Loudoun (Lucketts), the fall off in prices has not been nearly as dramatic. This region north of Leesburg is holding it's value much better than the rest of Loudoun.
But, it does make me wonder.... as a local resident who drives on Route 15 every day, I see all the commuters going to and from Maryland. It made me wonder what the home prices in Frederick County were and how they compared to Loudoun? The numbers were a lot different. Homes in Frederick County, on average, were about 70% of the price of a home in Loudoun County. No wonder we have so many people living in Frederick and commuting to Loudoun!
With this much of a price difference, I then asked the question... "Are people leaving Loudoun County to move to less expensive areas of the country?" The answer was NO. At least, not according to the US Census Bureau, UHAUL and United Van Lines. They all released their own studies, and the map below shows you the top 10 states for inbound and outbound population moves. I was surprised to see that West Virginia was actually listed as one of the places people were leaving at #47 in the country, down -0.6%. Virginia was slightly better than halfway in the #22 spot at an increase of 0.3%, while Maryland saw a decrease of -0.2% in the #40 spot, just outside the bottom 10 places people are leaving! So, it does not seem like people are leaving Loudoun and heading to Frederick. Lucketts Real Estate prices seem to support that theory. Not too surprisingly, worst on the list was New York in the #50 spot at -0.9% (almost 1% of the population moved away!!!), while the number one spot of destinations people moved to went to Florida at almost 2% growth!
In 2022 I was happy to have represented a LOT of homes in the Lucketts area. In every case, I was brought in, we worked through my "3 P" strategy (Price, Presentation, Promotion) and got them all offers above asking price.
Please check out the video below and give it a thumbs up. And, at the end of the video, I provide a few details on just a few of the homes I represented in the Lucketts area also. If you're thinking of buying or selling in this area, give me a call! As your local expert for real estate in the Lucketts area, I'd love to represent you!
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